Is the SAHM Rule Obfuscated by SAHM's or SAHP's

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Are Stay-At-Home-Parents factored in trigger markers for the start of a recession, such as unemployment ratio to inflation.

According to USA Today

"The Sahm rule is named for noted economist Claudia Sahm, who has accurately forecast every U.S. recession since the 1970s. Basically the rule says that if the jobless rate, based on a three-month average, is a half percentage point above its lowest point over the previous 12 months, the economy has tipped into a recession."

However, Claudia Sahm was born in 1976.

Elsewhere, in a Bloomberg interview the Sahm rule is defined as

if the unemployment rate rises more than half a percentage point within a one year period the US is in a recession.

Claudia Sahm has previously worked from 2007- 2017 for the Federal Reserve Board, and a member of the Obama administration. and also maintains the economics blog MacroMom and economics newsletter Stay-At-Home Macro

"My case for a 50 basis point cut consists of two parts: one related to inflation and the other to employment. It’s a data-driven argument that does not rely on the risks of a recession, though risk management arguments for 50 basis points are compelling, too."

The Sahm Rule, Explained (By Claudia Sahm) – BNN Bloomberg

Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

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But does the SAHM rule include in their calculations a different SAHM? "Stay-at-home-Mothers" or those families with one parent no longer in the work force; especially after the Covid-19 shutdown when many families decided to adjust their life, budget, even residency, to accommodate one parent continuing to reinforce the family structure, even to the point of education at home.

Does not including those who lost a job and then decided to "leave the work-force" cause a misappropriation of statistics on job-loss or unemployment?


A 2014 Pew Research observation

  • After decades of decline, a rise in stay-at-home mothers” (Pew Research Social and Demographic Trends, April 7, 2014)
  • "Foreign-born mothers are far more likely than U.S.-born mothers not to work outside the home. In 2012, 40% of immigrant mothers were stay-at-home mothers, compared with 26% of U.S.-born mothers. Immigrants also are more likely than U.S.-born mothers to be married stay-at-home mothers"

A 2014 Bureau of Labor Statistics report suggested

  • 1967, 49 percent of mothers were stay-at-home mothers.
  • A recent report by the Pew Research Center shows that the number of stay-at-home mothers has risen in recent year
  • Since 1999, the percentage of mothers who stayed at home began to increase again, rising by 6 points to 29 percent in 2012

A 2023 Pew Research observation

  • Almost 1 in 5 stay-at-home parents in the U.S. are dads
  • Between 1989 and 2021, the share of mothers who were not employed for pay decreased slightly, from 28% to 26%. Over the same span, the share of fathers who were not working increased from 4% to 7%.

April 2024 Bureau of Labor Statistics report (w/out phrase stay-at-home) suggested

  • 2023, 68.9 percent of mothers with children under age 6 participated in the labor force
    compared with 77.8 percent of mothers whose youngest child was ages 6 to 17.
  • Conversely, fathers with children under age 6 were more likely to participate in the labor force than those whose youngest child was ages 6 to 17 (94.6 percent versus 92.4 percent). (See table 5.)
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